Energy volume is estimated from occupied time at a mean power of 60% of the rating, at most 70 kW. That is a fixed assumption, not a meter reading. The cap comes from session length on 300–400 kW outlets in our status data (20–27 minutes, September 2026) and the energy per session Fastned and Tesla publish. We estimate the gross missed revenue of one charging point, before any of it is recovered by a later visit or a purchase elsewhere. We do not forecast market growth, and the model carries no queueing or seasonal effect.
Churn applies to served sessions only — revenue already lost to downtime or failed sessions is not counted again. The 2.2% default is 5% failed sessions × 44% of drivers who avoid an operator after one poor experience.
That 44% is stated intent in a survey, not a measured annual churn rate. Public status data cannot identify drivers or observe whether they came back, so nothing here measures a departure. Read 2.2% as a floor: it values each departing driver at a single average visit, and a repeat customer is worth more than one visit.
Porsche publishes an open PDF: 4,135 preference-survey participants and more than 1,350 charging assessments, yielding over 17,750 observations. The €46bn figure is a scenario for the European market over 2025–2030 and cannot be divided by today's park to produce an annual loss per point. USCALE surveyed 2,210 German EV drivers in August 2025, plus roughly 500 in each of five further European markets; drivers there actively use three to four charging services, with the preferred one taking more than half of their spend. Churn at a charging point is a shift in preference, not a cancelled contract.
Each currency carries its own default price rather than one figure converted: NOK 4.80 and SEK 4.60 are drop-in DC tariffs for those markets less 25% VAT, checked against NAF's Norwegian price overview and Recharge's published tariffs. Nothing in the tool converts between currencies, so enter your own price whenever you have it.
Sources rechecked 11 September 2026. This is a scenario tool, not an audited loss statement.